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When it comes to the long-term health effects of climate change, scientists will not shy away from using the words “tipping point.” But how much the United States may have already gone over it remains a subject of debate.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently issued a report analyzing what is expected to be the effects of climate change on human health in various regions. Among the findings:
In many countries, and particularly in developing countries, an elevated probability of death of old age, heart disease, cancer, and stroke increased the most from mid-century to 2090, with the greatest increase being in the most vulnerable groups of humans (particularly women). It should be noted that, while this risk is increasing to an alarming extent because of climate-induced changes, it is projected to become less pronounced in most locations.
The greatest threat to the population was the spread of heat stroke, with a rise in the prevalence of “heat stress” and other noncommunicable diseases in the most vulnerable populations (for example, in children aged 1–4 years).
On the health of current and future generations, the most alarming changes are in the risk of “other chronic diseases and conditions.” These include heart diseases, respiratory illnesses, cancer, and Alzheimer’s disease to name a few.
“Some risk factors for these chronic diseases, such as smoking or obesity, appear to have become less influential since the 1990s,” reads one section of the report.
But a lot of experts seem to be saying that the science on the subject is a lot murkier than the report indicates.
“The IPCC is trying to make a lot of predictions about health impacts, and it has no evidence to back up the predictions,” said Dr. Jens Maurer, an expert in population health and the director of the Institute for Health and Human Rights.
“People may be underestimating where they’re going,” added Maurer, a retired senior research fellow at the University of British Columbia.
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